K2 / Broad Peak Weather Pakistan Meteorological Dept, Senior Meteorologist

Update 8/1/2004: WEATHER-ALERT: (for Mon-Tues-Wed):  K2/BP’s areas are under the influence of a Strong-Jet , making some Hard Days (Mon-Wed), Upper winds will be VERY HIGH/SW’LY with Snowstorms/Blowing Ice-crystals during next 3 days, Temperatures are expected to fall further. Be careful till Wed-Evening.

Update 7/31/2004: “Weather is becoming BAD as a strong jet is likely to approach K2/BP area in next 24 hrs, Upper-Winds are increasing gradually (Winds will be  High/Westerly on Sunday), with Clouds formation/Snowfall  over/around K2/BP.”

WEATHER-ALERT: (for Mon-Tues-Wed): Due to a Strong-Jet , Some Hard Days are going to start with VERY HIGH-WINDS/SNOW-STORMS over K2/BPks from Sunday-Evening/Monday to Wed-Evening. Upper Winds will be Very High & Southwesterly from Monday. Be careful.

Update 7/30/2004: “Weather is now BAD becoming more BAD in coming days for K2/BP area, as Upper-Winds are increasing gradually (Winds will be  High/Westerly on Saturday, becoming  SW’ly from Sunday), with Clouds formation/Snowfall  over/around K2/BP.”

WEATHER-ALERT: (First 3 or 4 Days of Aug will be VERY-HARD)

A Strong-Jet is close to K2/BP area, likely to approach Sunday morning; Some Hard Days are going to start with VERY HIGH-WINDS/SNOW-STORMS over K2/BP from 01– 4th Aug.  Because No Activity possible during these days and Very-High/Southwesterly-Winds may create problems, Please Take it VERY SERIOUSLY & BE CAREFUL

Update 7/29/2004: “Weather is now bad for K2/BP area , as Upper-Winds are likely to increase gradually further (Upper Winds will be  High/Westerly in next 2 days), with Clouds formation/Snowfall  over/around K2/BP.”

WEATHER-ALERT: (First 3 or 4 Days of Next month will be VERY-HARD) Another Strong Jet likely to approach K2/BP area from Saturday; Some Hard Days are expected with VERY HIGH-WINDS/SNOW-STORMS over K2/BP from 31st July – 4th Aug.  Be ready and arrange your activities accordingly. Because No Activity possible during these days and Very-High/Southwesterly-Winds may create problems, Please BE CAREFUL.

Update 7/28/2004: “Weather is now going to change over K2/BP area from Thursday (29th July), as Upper-Winds are likely to increase (Upper Winds will be High/Westerly in next 2 days), But no change in wind direction during this period. Clouds formation over/around K2/BP has started but still No significant (Stormy/Snowy) change expected in next 2 days.

WEATHER-ALERT: (First 3 or 4 Days of Next month will be VERY-HARD)

Another Strong Jet likely to approach K2/BP area from 31st July; Some Hard Days are expected with VERY HIGH-WINDS/SNOW-STORMS over K2/BP from 31st July – 4th Aug.  Be ready and arrange your activities accordingly.

Update 7/27/2004: “Weather is still FINE for K2/BP area for another 2 days, Some isolated Clouds may develop over/around the area but no stormy/severe activity expected.”

Upper Winds are Westerly, likely to increase gradually from 29th July (Thursday-Evening) ,may be Very High with Westerly direction from Friday.

WEATHER-ALERT

Another Strong Jet likely to approach K2/BP area from 31st July; A Hard-Period(31 july-4th Aug) expected with VERY HIGH-WINDS/SNOW-STORMS. Be ready and arrange your activities accordingly, as 3-DAYS(1st-3rd Aug) will be VERY BAD.

Pakistan Meteorological Dept, Senior Meteorologist

Update 7/26/2004: "Weather is still OPEN for K2/BP for next 2/3 days, Upper Winds will be Normal/Westerly, No significant change before 29th July.

Upper Winds likely to increase gradually from Thursday Evening/Friday, Weather expected to Disturb from 31st July or 1st Aug. First 3/4 days of August will be Very Hard for K2/BP

Update 7/24/2004: "Weather is open for K2/BP area, No need to worry as No significant Change likely till 28th July".

Due to Some Monsoon Currents occasional CLOUDS are expected to develop in south of K2/BP area during next 3/4 days but these eastern-monsoon currents (normally move below 15,000 ft) cannot cross 35°N due to high mountains barrier. Some Clouds may approach Skardu but no stormy/snowy conditions expected. Upper Winds are likely to behave normally (mostly westerly) in next 4/5 days.

The Wind Speed expected to increase from Thursday-Evening (29th July), the Weather over K2/BP likely to disturb from 31st-July or 1st Aug.

Update 7/23/2004: "Hard Days for K2/BP have gone, now weather for next 5 days (24-28 July) is clear with mostly sunny days & Westerly-Winds (from mid to Upper Levels). Some Clouds may develop at evenings but no stormy/foggy conditions expected during these days". Good Luck for All Climbers

Update 7/22/2004: "The current weather conditions likely to prevail for one more day: Friday Morning may be better with sunny-interval but Evening will be Bad with Clouds/SW'ly High Winds over K2/BP. Tomorrow is the last day, as weather is expected to improve from Saturday, and SOME GOOD DAYS(5/6) ARE STARTING DAY AFTER." During this period(24-28 July), The Upper Winds will be mostly WESTERLY

Update 7/21/2004: "Weather is still Bad over K2/BP area with High-Winds/Cloud-Fog Formation; The same conditions likely to prevail for another 2 days, Upper Winds will be SW'ly with same speed. Thursday Evening may be Hard, Be Careful."

Weather is expected to improve from 24th July (Saturday), Some Good Days are coming

Update 7/20/2004: "The tail of Strong-Jet is still affecting K2/BP areas, weather has slightly improved as compared to last 5 days, but 100% clearance not possible in next 3 days."

OUTLOOK of NEXT 3 DAYS:

1-Some sunny-intervals likely at mornings/day-times but Evenings/Afternoons may be Hard over K2/BP;Wed/Thurs-Evenings may be Hard, Be Careful.

2-Upper Winds direction will be SW'ly in next 3 days.

3-Upper Winds Speed will not change. 

Good Weather expected from 24th July (Saturday) ,giving a GOOD-WINDOW of 5/6 Days.

Update 7/18/2004: "K2/BP area is still under the influence of a Strong-Jet, causing Very High-Winds/Snow Storms/Poor Visibility". The Bad-Weather/Strong Jet expected to prevail for another 24 hrs, Monday will be Very Hard, Please Be CAREFUL for one more day.

The Weather Conditions over K2/BP are likely to improve from TUESDAY, Wind Speed at Upper Level (20,000-30,000 ft) is expected to fall (from Tuesday Morning), But 100% Weather Clearance is still not possible in next few days.

Outlook for coming 3/4 days (From Tuesday):

1-The Wind Speed expected to decrease about 30% in coming days.

2-Some good sunny intervals may be observed at morning/day times ,But Evenings may be Hard by Cloud Covers/High Winds.

3-Wind at Upper Level is Backing slightly (SW to WSW).

Update 7/17/2004: "The Weather is still VERY BAD for K2/BPk area due to a strong jet, Jet is likely to leave this area from 19th July. The upper winds are expected to fall/decrease from Monday. But SUNDAY will be very Hard. Please BE CAREFUL for next 2 days.

Update 7/16/2004: "Weather becoming more BAD for K2/BP, Next 2 days are very Hard for K2/BP as Upper-Winds are likely to increase further on Saturday Evening. High Stormy Winds/Snow storm with very poor visibility expected in next 2/3 days."

Climbers should be VERY CAREFUL in next 3 days. 

Update 7/15/2004: Strong-Jet expected to approach K2/BP in next 24 hrs (Friday), likely to persist till 19th July (Monday). Very Hard/Worst Days (becoming more hard) have started. All Climbers should be VERY-CAREFUL during next 4 days as Very High Winds may deceive with some sunny-intervals.

Upper Winds are already High, going further high in coming days.

"High Stormy-Winds/Snow-Storms with Zero Visibility" will be frequent in next 4 days. Most Hard Days are SATURDAY/SUNDAY for K2/BP.

Upper Winds Trend for Next 3 Days:

20,000 ft= SW 40/50 Kts

22,000 ft= SW 50/60 Kts

25,000 ft= SW 60/70 Kts

28,000 ft= SW 70/80 Kts...Mostly Southerly on Sat-Evening/Monday.. Wind may shoot up to 90 Kts.

Update 7/14/2004: "The weather is becoming BAD/HARD, as a Strong-Jet is close to Northern parts of Pakistan, likely to pass at North/Northwest of K2/BP in next 24 hrs. This JET stream is likely to approach K2/BP in next 48 hrs; and expected to prevail for 3 to 4 days."

BE VERY CAREFUL in next 4 days, as "Very High/Stormy Winds with Snow-Storm" will create problems over K2/Bpks areas.

Update 7/13/2004: The weather is now becoming bad in coming days. "Partly Cloudy with Overcast at evening" conditions expected to prevail on Wednesday. Tonight (Tuesday) may be hard due to some high-winds/snowfall, The Upper Winds are now likely to increase gradually especially around K2. The wind-direction is presently westerly (almost) but now it will start backing (gradually SW'ly).

Climbers Alert: Strong Jet is getting close Northern Areas of Pakistan, likely to pass at North/Northwest of K2/BP between 14-19 July, expected to affect K2 on Thursday-Morning & BP on Thursday-Evening. Some very hard-days(16-19 July) are coming, Be VERY careful during these days because VERY HIGH-WINDS/BLOWING-SNOW/BLOWING ICE-CRYSTALS expected commonly with VERY POOR VISIBILITY. The intensity of Storms will be HIGH at afternoon/evenings.

Update 7/11/2004: Next 2 days are good with Fair/Partly Cloudy conditions, No stormy conditions, Winds are almost normal", after 2 days the Clouds-Development will be frequent & Wind speed likely to increase gradually.

Climbers Alert: Strong Jet likely to pass at North/Northwest of K2/BP between 14-19th July. Lower Edge of this JET will affect K2/BP area badly from 16th July-18th July making 3/4 hard days. During this period "HIGH-STORMY-WINDS with Blowing Snow/ice crystals"  are expected....."LAST 3 DAYS OF THIS WEEK WILL BE HARD 

Update 7/9/2004: Today (Friday) was a hard day due to clouds/snowfall, But the weather is again becoming good. "Partly Cloudy Conditions with good Sunny intervals" likely during next few days(3/4).The Upper Winds have started weakening, No Storm/High Winds next couple of days.

Climbers Alert: A strong Jet is now crossing North Caspian Sea, and it is likely to pass from northwest of K2/BP between 14-19th July making some hard days at the end of next week.

Update 7/8/2004: Partly Cloudy weather conditions likely to prevail in next two days, with some isolated snowfall, but no stormy conditions are prevailing

Update 7/7/2004: The "Clouds formation with some snowfall" in the areas pf K2/BP has stopped, now the next few days are good with clear weather conditions. The Upper Winds are still high but likely to reduce gradually, no significant stormy-conditions expected in next few days.

Climbers Alert: A strong westerly jet has approached North-Caspian Sea, "It is likely to recurve NE-ward from North of Afghanistan after few days(4/5)". Hopefully it will pass at northwest of K2 during next week, but it may graze K2/BP .We are watching this jet, and please follow this Alert message daily

Update 7/4/2004: Cloudy with some sunny intervals weather conditions likely to prevail for another few days. A jet of weak/moderate intensity is now passing at north of K2/BP, the winds are becoming HIGH at mid/upper level; and likely to remain high during next 2 days.

Climbers Alert: A strong Jet expected to approach next week.

Update 7/3/2004: The Clouds are developing daily in the areas of K2/BP, such development will continue for next few days. A weak/moderate jet likely to start passing at north of K2/BP from Monday-Evening, So the winds at mid/upper levels are expected to increase gradually from Tuesday. During next 3 days the winds are likely to remain HIGH, some isolated ppt (snowfall, blowing-snow/ice-crystals) can reduce the visibility.

Climbers Alert: Strong Jet expected to approach after 6/7 days, making some hard days.

Regards/Good Luck for All Climbers.

Update 7/2/2004: "The Clouds have developed today (Friday) in the areas of K2/Broad-Peaks, such formation will be very frequent (in afternoon/evenings) during next 3/4 days by disturbing the visibility. Some isolated ppt (snow flares, Prob 20%) may occur, But No Stormy Conditions and Normal Winds are prevailing.

Winds are expected to remain HIGH from "Monday-Evening to Wed-Evening", as a Weak/Moderate Jet likely to pass at North of K2/BP. After that the weather will be fine again."

CLIMBERS-ALERT:...A Strong Jet likely to approach after 7/8 days, may prevail for 3/4 days. Be ready to face some hard days, and plan your movement accordingly.

Update 7/1/2004:I am here giving a map regarding Normal (Rainfall/Winds) of July, please send/publish this map for your climbers . The Weather outlook is same (No Significant Change in next 3/4 days). But inform your climbers that ;

1- Evening Clouds formation daily in next few days.

2-A Normal/Weak Jet likely to pass at north of K2/Broad Peak after 3 days(5th & 6th July), The winds will be high for 2 days (Monday/Tuesday) with Cloudy conditions at evenings .No significant storm But "be careful" for these 2 days.

	Lower resolution for climbers on K2/Broad Peak

Update 6/30/2004: Weather Outlook is same as yesterday.

Update 6/29/2004: The Weather conditions are still same " No Jet, Normal Winds, Clear weather" for next few days. This period is at least for next 5/6 days, may extend up to next 10 days, because another "jet" likely to approach after 7 or 8th July.

During next few days the climbers will observe some "clouds at evenings", which may disturb visibility for 2-3 hours. These clouds may be due to local formation, and no need to worry by this formation.

The Winds Trend For Next 3/4 Days is:

Lower Winds/5000 ft.........Variable.

Mid Level Winds/5000-15000 ft.........N/NW'ly:10/20 Knots.

Upper Winds/15000-25000 ft...........Mostly W'ly:30/40  Knots.

Regards/Best Wishes......Pakistan Meteorological Dept

Update 6/27/2004: The last few days there has been a very bad storm in the Broad Peak/K2 area. It has affected many expeditions trying to get to the mountain. The good news according to Pakistan Meteorological Dept, Senior Meteorologist is "that the Storm has passed today, now the next 7/8 days are clear with good weather conditions. These 7 or 8 days are ideal for movement/activity, don't miss this good period. No jet is near the area, Upper Winds are almost NW'ly becoming Westerly with reducing speed. Lower Winds, below 10/15,000 ft are variable ranging 10-20 knots, mostly Northerly.  Again the bottom line is" NEXT 7 DAYS ARE VERY GOOD."... Pakistan Meteorological Dept, Senior Meteorologist

With that said, the snow on the mountain means the avalanche danger is high. These forecasts have been used in the past with excellent results, however one should always be reminded these are forecasts and forecasts can be wrong. Climbing mountains is a very high risk activity where people die, many times due to the weather, SO be careful.

 

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